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Alt 22-07-2019, 18:24   #63
Benjamin
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Registriert seit: Mar 2004
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Quelle: History says to ignore the Fed's interest-rate chatter
Published: June 17, 2015, by Simon Maierhofer, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hi...ter-2015-06-17
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Fed Funds and Stock Relationships



Quelle: https://www.selectionsandtiming.com/...relationships/
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S & P 500 INDEX PRICE AND EFFECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE OVERLAY
Zitat:
Historically speaking, stocks tend to benefit from lower interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. This was also pointed out by Goldman Sach's equity strategist, David Kostin, who stated that 'if the Fed does cut rates, the S & P 500 usually rallies afterward,' adding that 'few precedents exist during the past 30 years where futures discounted an interest rate cut 30 days prior to a scheduled FOMC meeting but the Fed did not cut.' This relationship can be observed in chart 1 below which depicts the monthly change in the S & P 500 Index and the effective federal funds rate (FFR).
Zitat:
the variance of S & P 500 Index returns rises dramatically in the 3-months, 6-months, 9-months and 12-months following the start of a Fed rate cut cycle. Looking out a year after the FOMC begins to ease monetary policy, the S & P 500 Index was higher by 12.59 percent, 13.86 percent and 26.13 percent from June 1989, July 1995 and September 1998 whereas the stock market dropped -17.26 percent and -23.61 percent from January 2001 and September 2007.
Das ist erstaunlich, weil derzeit der S&P 500 diesen %-Anstieg bereits gemacht hat, bevor die Fed überhaupt mit einer Zinssenkung begonnen hat: Verkehrte Welt, bzw. eine Abweichung von der historischen Erfahrung!!!
Zitat:
... it is difficult to imagine that the already-diminishing impact of loosening monetary policy can overcome the daunting headwind posed by global trade friction, decelerating GDP and deteriorating equity earnings. If the macro-economy truly needs as much monetary stimulus as markets are currently pricing, investors could be in for a rude awakening when the longest business cycle in history officially comes to an end.
Übersetzt:
Zitat:
Es ist schwer vorstellbar, dass die ohnehin schon abnehmenden Auswirkungen der Lockerung der Geldpolitik den enormen Gegenwind überwinden können, der durch die weltweiten Handelshemmnisse, die Verlangsamung des BIP und die Verschlechterung der Aktiengewinne verursacht wird. Wenn die Makroökonomie wirklich so viel monetäre Impulse braucht, wie die Märkte derzeit bewerten, könnten die Anleger ein böses Erwachen erleben, wenn der längste Konjunkturzyklus der Geschichte offiziell zu Ende geht.

Quelle: 7/11/2019, https://menafn.com/1098749382/Stock-...Fed-Cuts-Rates

Geändert von Benjamin (22-07-2019 um 18:47 Uhr)
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